High demand for new energy vehicle motor shipments to boost chip demand

Electric machine (commonly known as "motor") refers to an electromagnetic device that converts or transmits electrical energy according to the law of electromagnetic induction.

Permanent magnet synchronous motors account for 94%, gradually evolving into flat wire, oil cooled, and multi in one

According to the different working power sources, motors can be divided into DC motors and AC motors.

In the early stage, DC motors were mainly used for permanent magnet motors in new energy vehicles due to their simple control methods, good gearshift performance, and low cost. However, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, some inherent defects of DC motors gradually appear. After practical progress has been made in AC motor technology, AC motors with compact structure and easy to manufacture with high speed, high voltage, high current, and large capacity have gradually replaced AC motors and become the mainstream of the market.

According to different varieties, AC motors can be divided into two categories: synchronous motors and asynchronous motors. Among them, the permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) in synchronous motors has many advantages, such as high power, high operating efficiency, simple and compact structure, large torque, stability, and good variable speed performance. The market share has reached 94%, occupying a mainstream position in the domestic new energy vehicle drive motor market.

As the key actuator of electric vehicles, permanent magnet motors replace the engine of traditional vehicles as the key actuator of electric vehicles. Their performance determines important performance parameters such as climbing ability, acceleration ability, and maximum speed, which are directly related to the driving force, economy, and comfort of vehicles. In recent years, with the accelerated transformation of the new energy vehicle industry, the requirements for permanent magnet motors have become increasingly high. At present, it is gradually evolving into flat wire motors, oil cooled motors, and multi in one electric drive systems.

(1) The permeability of flat wire motors gradually increases

A flat wire motor refers to an open-card enameled copper wire that is replaced by a traditional cylindrical enameled copper wire in the stator winding. Compared to traditional circular wire motors, flat wire motors can increase the bare copper slot fill ratio by 20% to 30%, and have characteristics such as high efficiency, high power density, good heat dissipation performance, low noise, and light weight.

The domestic horizontal motor was first installed in SAIC New Energy Vehicles in 2017. In recent years, technical and processing issues have been gradually resolved, and related industries have developed and improved. In 2021, mainstream automotive companies such as BYD and Tesla have been retrofitting flat wire motors. By 2022, the sales volume of flat wire motors for new energy vehicles had reached 2.762 million units, representing 48%, an increase of about 28% compared to 2021. Considering the advantages of flat wire motors such as high power density, high energy conversion efficiency, and strong heat removal, it is expected that the penetration rate of flat wire motors will further increase in the next 3-5 years, with the penetration rate expected to exceed 90% in 2025.

（2） Oil cooled motors are gradually becoming the mainstream of the market

With the development of new energy vehicle motors towards high accuracy, high power density, miniaturization, lightweight, and electromechanical integration, problems such as a sharp increase in the internal heat value of the motor and a serious shortage of effective heat removal space will also result, limiting the further improvement of the power of the motor system.

In response to this problem, many solutions have been derived in this field, among which the oil cooling solution is one of the solutions that is currently highly recognized in the market. The oil cooling scheme can generally be divided into stator oil spraying and stator oil spraying rotor oil spraying. According to the information of high performance lithium batteries, the stator oil spraying in the stator oil passage currently mainly adopts oil cooling technologies such as BYD, Tesla, Geely, SAIC, and Mercedes. The landing vehicle series mainly includes BYD Song MAX, BYD Song Pro, BYD Song Plus, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, SAIC Roewe eRX5, Geely Geometry C, and Geely Emgrand PHEV Krypton 001, etc.

Taking Juyi Power as an example, the 150kW "three in one" integrated electric drive system launched by the enterprise can cover the power range of 120kW to 180kW, with a maximum system efficiency of 94% and a CLTC comprehensive cycle efficiency of 90%. Suitable for Class A/Class B vehicles, small/compact/medium-sized SUVs, which is conducive to improving vehicle mileage. Currently, it has achieved batch supply in China and has been applied to Chery Ant and Jianghuai electric vehicles.

In 2022, the cumulative load capacity of motor drive will be 5.78 million pieces, and the share of vehicle manufacturers will continue to increase

In recent years, with the continuous development of technology, China's new energy vehicles have ushered in a period of rapid development.

According to the China Automobile Association, in 2022, China's automobile production and sales volume were 7.058 million units and 6.887 million units, with year-on-year growth of 96.9% and 93.4%. The market share reached 25.6%, higher than 12.1% last year; In terms of exports, in 2022, China exported 3.111 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%. The export volume exceeded 3 million vehicles for the first time, making it the second largest automotive exporter in the world after Japan. It is predicted that China's new energy vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2023, with sales expected to exceed 9 million units, maintaining a rapid development trend.

As one of the key three electrical systems of new energy vehicles, electric motors account for about 10% of the total vehicle value, and are one of the most central components in the new energy vehicle industry chain. Due to the increase in the electrification rate and the proportion of dual motor and multi motor systems, the rapid expansion of permanent magnet motors has promoted the continuous growth of motor sales. According to the information from the NE era, the total load of electric motors for new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 was 5.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%. The sales volume of the three in one and multi in one systems reached 3.555 million units, a year-on-year increase of 98%, accounting for approximately 62% of the supporting quantity.

In terms of specific sales volume, BYD's Freddy Power ranked first in the new energy passenger vehicle permanent magnet motor market in 2022 with an installed capacity of 1, 716, and 548 sets; Subsequently, Tesla ranked second in the market with installed capacity of 506 and 789; Founder Motor ranks third with installed capacity of 435 and 864. In terms of growth rate, except for Shanghai Electric Drive, other manufacturers have achieved good and rapid growth effects, with Auto Age Electric and Ford Power ranking the top two among the fastest growing manufacturers with growth rates of 230.50% and 194.10%, respectively.

In terms of market share, in 2022, the top ten companies with permanent magnet motor installed capacity accounted for about 73% of the upper and lower markets, with high industry concentration. In terms of supplier types, three of the top ten companies with sales volume are complete vehicle manufacturers, with BYD's market share of about 30%, ranking first, with a market share increase of 12% compared to 2021; Tesla has a market share of about 9%, ranking second; Weilai has a market share of 4%, with a total market share of about 43%. The other seven companies are power system integrators (Tier1) and third-party suppliers, accounting for approximately 30% of the upper and lower markets in total.

At the customer support level, Tesla, Weilai Drive Technology, Volkswagen Transmission, and Huayu Power Motor are only used for their own automotive applications, not for sale. Ford Power also supplies Toyota, Great Wall Motors, FAW, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, and Dongfeng; Tier1 manufacturers, Valeo, Bosch, Borg Warner, Nippon Electric Power, and ZF can provide permanent magnet motors to mainstream automotive companies in the market; In recent years, in the wave of new energy vehicle development, China has also emerged with high-quality motor companies such as advanced electric power, Shenzhen Land, Shanghai County Electric Power, Tianjin Songzheng, square motor, ocean motor, Wolong electric drive, and Blue Ocean Huateng, which have the advantage of localized and differentiated services. These companies have established a foothold in specific segments of the industry.

The rapid growth in motor installed capacity has boosted the demand for chips, with power module manufacturers benefiting greatly

With the rapid growth in the installed capacity of new energy vehicle motors, the demand for internal semiconductor equipment is gradually increasing.

According to peak information, master MCU, motor drive chip, power (IGBT or SiC) MOSFET modules, and other devices.

（1） Main control unit (MCU) chip

The main board chip layer is mainly MCU, and the core architecture is generally provided by ARM companies. The core chips of this series have been provided by Texas Instruments, Italian semiconductors, and international major manufacturers, such as Infineon and Cypress.

Taking the domestic manufacturer Iconic Power as an example, the company's IMCU Infineon 3 series chips are commonly used for the main board chips of the 1.0 controller. As of August 2022, the cumulative shipment volume has reached 150000, with a cumulative range of 1.35 billion kilometers. In addition, the mass production models equipped by the enterprise IMCU 2.0 also support more than 10 customers such as traditional automobile companies and New Forces of Automobile Manufacturing. It is estimated that the annual shipment will be 100000 yuan in 2022.

Domestic companies have a relatively low market share in motor motherboard chips, and only enterprises such as Feng have achieved higher computing power and better control performance in the motor control industry through long-term scientific research investment and technology accumulation, producing core structures of independently owned motor control processors, and completing algorithm hardware and equipment integration.

（2） Driver (HVIC) chip

If a motor wants to operate, it cannot be separated from the work of the motor drive chip.

The motor drive chip is an integrated circuit that includes speed control, torque control, position control, and overvoltage protection. The flow direction of the motor winding circuit can be operated based on input signals and built-in algorithms, and then the start, stop, and rotation directions of the motor can be operated. Due to the critical impact of motor drive chips on the completion of motor performance, brand users have strict product verification and import procedures for motor drive control chips. Once the terminal is produced in batch, it is not easy to replace, and the user's adhesion is strong.

Currently, major manufacturers in the world such as Texas Instruments, Italy France Semiconductor, Ansemy, Infineon, and Roma are all in the motor drive chip market. Allegro and the world's top ten manufacturers account for about 67% of Toshiba, Panasonic, NZP, and Meixin.

Compared with foreign manufacturers, China started relatively late in the field of motor drive chips, and its technology is relatively backward. Although there have been a large number of motor drive chip companies in recent years, such as Asia Technology, BYD Micro, BYD Semiconductor, Zhaoyi Innovation, Microelectronics, Smart Micro, Lingou Chuangxin, Xiongweiwei Micro, Xuanzhi Technology, Core String Semiconductor, etc., BYD's manufacturers of semiconductors, smart chip semiconductors, and nano chip semiconductors currently have technical strength and related products listed in the automotive regular motor drive chip industry.

（3） Power module

The motor controller is the control part of the new energy vehicle battery power conversion mechanical energy. From the perspective of the installed capacity of motor control in 2022, the main manufacturers have developed rapidly, with Ferdi Power, InBehr, and CRRC Times Electric increasing by about one time.

As the core power converter in the motor controller, the key semiconductor devices are silicon based IGBT modules and SiC based MOSFET modules.

1. Silicon based IGBT module

At the level of silicon based IGBT modules, due to their high compression resistance, low on-off consumption, and low switching loss, they can well meet the requirements of motor controllers for high-voltage, high load frequency, and low loss products. Therefore, they are widely used in electric drives of new energy vehicles, accounting for about 30% to 40% of the cost of the entire electric drive.

Currently, Infineon, Fuji Electric, and Mitsubishi Electric occupy 37%, 11%, and 10% of the market, respectively, ranking the top three in this field. The domestic market share of Star Semiconductor reached 2.8%, ranking sixth.

In addition to STAR Semiconductors, BYD, SLANWEI, and TIME Electric have also achieved good development results in the automotive regulation IGBT module industry, with TIME Electric developing the fastest. Currently, products in the IGBT industry have covered low, medium, and high power segments. In 2022, the sales of motor controller products equipped with enterprise power equipment reached 195586 sets, a year-on-year increase of 262.20%.

2. Silicon carbide MOSFET module

800V high-voltage motor is the development direction of permanent magnet motor in the future, which will lead to the improvement of motor efficiency and fast battery charging rate. Currently, key electric vehicle manufacturers have gradually introduced silicon carbide (SiC) technology.

Tesla is the first automotive company in the industry to choose silicon carbide main drive inverter modules in electric vehicles. In 2018, Tesla changed the IGBT module to the SIC module in Model 3 for the first time. Currently, in addition to Tesla Model, more and more automotive manufacturers are converting silicon carbide MOSFET devices into electric drives. There are also BYD Han EV, the new BYD Tang EV, Weilai ES7, Weilai ET7, Weilai ET5, and Xiaopeng G9. For a long time, models such as the Porsche Tayan and Hyundai IONIQ5 have used silicon carbide devices in electric drive.

According to the information from NE Times, driven by new cars such as Tesla, Veritas, BYD, and Xiaopeng, the sales of electronic controls equipped with silicon carbide power modules exceeded 500000 units in 2022, accounting for 9.4% of the total sales.

In terms of global market share of SIC equipment, Italian semiconductors account for 40% of the market share, ranking first; Secondly, Infineon accounts for 22% of the market share; Among domestic manufacturers, Star Semiconductor, BYD Semiconductor, and Time Electric have already shipped large-scale SIC modules in the new energy automotive industry, and manufacturers such as China Resources Micro and Slan Micro have also completed validation. It is expected that related products will be launched on a large scale in the near future.

With the continuous increase in sales of motor controllers, SIC electrical control facilities continue to increase. However, due to yield and capacity constraints, the price of SIC is still about three times that of IGBT, so reducing costs around SIC has become a sustainable topic.

Previously, Tesla stated that the large-scale penetration of electric vehicles must be cheaper, and the cost of Tesla's next generation power drive unit will be reduced by about $1000. Among them, the demand for silicon carbide will be reduced by 75%, and the next generation of permanent magnet motors will not use rare earth materials. They will be manufactured in compact and efficient factories to achieve lower costs and higher efficiency.

Tesla currently has 87% silicon carbide in motor controllers. If we reduce consumption by 75%, there is no doubt that it will have a certain impact on the entire market in the short term. However, with the development of technology and the growth of production capacity, the decline in the cost of silicon carbide will be an inevitable trend for IGBT in the future, within 2 times. It is estimated that this will be the time when motor controllers gradually apply SiC on a large scale.

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